The Financial Impact of AvalonBay on the Princeton Taxpayer and Our Schools

The AvalonBay development of 280 units will undoubtedly have a major impact on the surrounding neighborhood in all sorts of ways many of which we can’t yet calculate.  One issue that we could attempt to ascertain is the financial impact of the AvalonBay proposed development on the average Princeton taxpayer.  But nobody knows what this impact will be.  Why?  Because no such analysis was ever performed by our elected officials before allowing up to 280 units.  The potential impact on our schools in particular may not have been considered important since the Hillier Scheme, which formed the basis of the 2006 MRRO Zoning Ordinance, was originally designed as a 55+ community.

Former Councilwoman Barbara Trelstad, an avid supporter of the development, hypothesized that Princeton would realize at least $1M net tax revenue from the site. How could she make such a claim?

If one looks to the Residences at Palmer Square rental units as an example of new rateables, you learn that for the tax year 2012 the total tax collected was $105,250 - a far cry from the Councilwoman’s claim.  Of that amount, approximately $24,000 came to the Borough, $30,000 went to Mercer County and $51,000 went to the Princeton School District. 

If we look to the other major developments in Princeton we learn that Griggs Farm, with 140 units, sends 138 children to the public schools; Princeton Community Village, with 238 units sends 101 students; the Princeton Housing Authority, with 176 units dedicated to families, sends 87 students. So what can we expect from the AvalonBay development of 280 units?  Without a professional analysis, the average taxpayer is left with his/her own analysis relying on multipliers used by housing professionals and municipalities in determining the impact of development on local schools.   

Based on bedroom size alone, statistics based on recognized multipliers developed by Rutgers University tell us to expect 37 school-age children.  But Princeton’s other developments far exceed these recognized multipliers.  Is there reason to believe the AvalonBay development will not produce more than the statistical average of students?

At the April 8, 2013 Council meeting, Superintendent Wilson warned Council:  “We are facing continued growth.  We’re in an all-time high at Princeton High School, standing room only, almost.  We’ve not prepared for any exchange students next year or for any tuition students next year.  We’re not able to take them.  We are full beyond capacity and we will continue to be so.  We have a very large seventh grade class, so in two years we’ll see another bump at the high school enrollment.”

She continued: “In terms of the next thing we’re watching – I believe it’s on your agenda tonight – any development, AvalonBay or otherwise, any development within the town will be our next influx of students.”

The 2010-11 Princeton Schools total spending per pupil was $22,570.  Coupled with the potential need for additional staff and classrooms, will the average taxpayer be likely to see a negative income stream from the AvalonBay rateables?  It's high time to do the math.

Please come to hear and give public comment tonight, Thursday, July 11th at 7:30 pm, at the Planning Board Hearing on the proposed Avalon Princeton.

Susanna Monseau

Moore Street